Arizka Warganegara
an Academist in Faculty of Social and Politic Science Universitas of Lampung
IT is interesting to review whether the Regional Head Election (Pilkada) should be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic or not. As part of the routine, the election becomes crucial to maintain the rhythm of local democratic development in the country. Regardless of our democracy is considered flawed democracy by the Economic Intelligent Unit of The Economist magazine, postponing the elections is a must when the nation is struggling to block the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are three scenarios for postponing the 2020 PILKADA. First, Pilkada will be postponed three months from the established schedule, which is September 2020 to be held in December 2020. Second, the election will be postponed for six months and held in March 2021. In the final scenario, the elections will be postponed 12 months or a year which means will take place in September 2021.
COVID-19 and Pilkada Posponement
By looking at the timeline of preparation and analyzing several statistical models to predict the spread of COVID-19, the most idealistic scenario for the election is to be held in September 2021 Gaudensius Suhardi, Editorial Board of Media Group, calculates the impact of the postponement will cause the regional heads will only have a two-year term. This calculation made according to the reference of the timeline for the elections in September 2021, while the tenure up to 2024 according to the agreed schedule and refer to Law No. 10 of 2016, November 2024 will be held in national elections.
Referring to that possibility, the complicated atmosphere now indeed hit the candidates for the regional head. Assuming a two-year term certainly will harm them economically and politically. Another option, the central government must provide a way out. There are several scenarios that we think are worth considering.
The first scenario is the Central Government extends the period time of the regional head prepare the national election in 2024. This choice has an impact on the regulations that govern the course.
In the second scenario, the fifty-fifty scenario means that the current regional head extended his position for up to two to three years and then two years before the local election in 2024. The central government replaces the Regional Head with the Acting Head, and give an assignment to prepare the 2024 Pilkada.
This moderate scenario, on the one hand, makes the regional government normally run up to two or three years before the acting head of the region replaces him. The acting head is not authorized to make strategic decisions.
In the third scenario, the waiting period will be until the national election in 2024. The regional head will be filled by the acting regional head. Well said, the decision will be made by the Central Government
Postponed is A Better Choice
How does Covid-19’s political impact on the elections? We consider there are two interesting things to discuss in this column.
First, the possibility of political participation will be very low. The community will certainly worry about leaving the house to the polling station. In this context, we are concerned that the elected regional head will experience a crisis of legitimacy even though there is no specific measure of what percentage of voters participating will derail the election results. This is not the aspect that we want to highlight, the political participation aspect is important because it involves the legitimacy of the elected KDH.
Second, a situation like this has the potential to make the practice of money politics increasingly out of control. Indeed, there is no research especially in the Lampung area, which shows how money politics strongly influences voters to come to the polling stations. However, this possibility in this pandemic situation would be huge if the money were played.
In an uncertain situation, money politics will play its dominant role in “forcing” voters to vote at the polling stations. Again, this is a qualitative assessment and needs supporting statistical data. The results will likely be far from ideal democracy. Candidates with strong financial support will get benefit from this situation.
In the context of Lampung, we see this as the right momentum for prospective regional heads to politically sincere and not to waste the funds to win in the elections. If the election would be held in September 2021, we advise the regional heads to fight with ideas and not by spending money.
Why do the candidates have to spend less money on the election? It is because the two-year term does not make sense to “return on investment” The candidates must spend an average of Rp30 billion to win in the elections (refers to The Minister of Home Affairs of Indonesia Tito Karnavian [Media Indonesia, April 2, 2020]). Unless there are candidates who sincerely donate money to become regional heads
In the end, the postponement will at least have a positive effect on the candidates to think wisely about spending money in the elections. Hopefully, the postponement will potentially establish a different political orchestra after it has been dominant with money compared to the ideas. []
